A Teacher (K-12) carries a 19/100 AI replacement risk (low). AI can already handle lesson-plan drafting; Classroom management still needs a person. Of exposed work, ~58% is automation vs 42% augmentation. Capability clock: ~6.5 years (2032). (ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index, 2026 data.)

Will AI replace a Teacher (K-12)?

AI replacement risk: 19/100 (low risk). Low exposure — this work resists automation and is hard for AI to replace.

Timeline: 5+ years / low. Of the exposed work, roughly 58% is likely to be automated and 42% augmented. $44.8B/yr of US wages sit in highly-exposed work for this role.

AI/software exposure: 36%. Robot/physical-automation exposure: 0%.

Capability clock: AI's measured task horizon reaches this role's core complexity (~1703693.8h of human work) ~6.5 years (2032) — projected from METR's ~4.3-month doubling.

Pressure Index: 15/100 (low) — blends risk, demand trend, and real-world evidence. Job postings up 4% vs 2020.

AI tools targeting this role

• Khanmigo — AI tutoring and lesson-planning assistance
• MagicSchool — generating lesson plans, rubrics, and materials

Layoff signal: low — AI assists with planning and grading, but classroom teaching demand remains stable.

Then vs. now: the 2013 Oxford study scored this 1%; our 2026 index scores it 19% (a rise of 18 points).

Tasks at risk

• Lesson-plan drafting — AI generates plans and materials.
• Grading objective work — Auto-grading at scale.
• Content creation — AI produces worksheets/quizzes.

Tasks that still need a human

• Classroom management — In-person leadership of children.
• Mentorship & motivation — Human relationships drive learning.

Skills that protect you

• AI-enhanced instruction — Use AI to personalize learning.
• SEL & mentorship — The irreplaceable human core.
• Curriculum design — Higher-leverage work.

Safer adjacent careers

Teaching Assistant (6%) · Sports Coach (7%) · Childcare Worker (5%) · Hairdresser (6%)

Related jobs

Preschool Teacher (19%) · Special Education Teacher (19%) · Elementary School Teacher (19%) · High School Teacher (19%)

Category: Education · Methodology · Download the dataset

ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index. Last updated 2026-06-26. AI-estimated and directionally useful, not a guarantee.