A Plumber carries a 7/100 AI replacement risk (low). AI can already handle quoting & invoicing; On-site repair & install still needs a person. Of exposed work, ~30% is automation vs 70% augmentation. Capability clock: ~7.6 years (2034). (ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index, 2026 data.)

Will AI replace a Plumber?

AI replacement risk: 7/100 (low risk). Low exposure — this work resists automation and is hard for AI to replace.

Timeline: 5+ years / low. Of the exposed work, roughly 30% is likely to be automated and 70% augmented. $2.1B/yr of US wages sit in highly-exposed work for this role.

AI/software exposure: 15%. Robot/physical-automation exposure: 0%.

Capability clock: AI's measured task horizon reaches this role's core complexity (~14417441.8h of human work) ~7.6 years (2034) — projected from METR's ~4.3-month doubling.

Pressure Index: 5/100 (low) — blends risk, demand trend, and real-world evidence. Job postings up 12% vs 2020.

AI tools targeting this role

• ServiceTitan — scheduling, dispatch, and invoicing for field jobs

Layoff signal: none — On-site plumbing work cannot be automated, and demand remains stable.

Then vs. now: the 2013 Oxford study scored this 35%; our 2026 index scores it 7% (a fall of 28 points).

Tasks at risk

• Quoting & invoicing — Automated admin tools.
• Parts lookup — AI-assisted sourcing.
• Scheduling — Automated dispatch.

Tasks that still need a human

• On-site repair & install — Physical, variable environments.
• Diagnosing hidden issues — Hands-on judgment.

Skills that protect you

• Commercial / specialized systems — Complex, higher-paid work.
• Business ownership — Own the customer relationship.
• Green plumbing tech — Emerging demand.

Related jobs

Cabinetmaker (7%) · Electrician (8%) · Auto Mechanic (8%) · Painter (8%)

Category: Skilled Trades · Methodology · Download the dataset

ReplacedYet AI-Risk Index. Last updated 2026-06-26. AI-estimated and directionally useful, not a guarantee.